Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace85.4#3
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.2% 8.1% 2.4%
#1 Seed 25.7% 28.4% 10.9%
Top 2 Seed 45.3% 49.2% 24.0%
Top 4 Seed 68.7% 72.6% 47.4%
Top 6 Seed 81.4% 84.6% 63.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.5% 95.3% 83.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.8% 94.0% 81.1%
Average Seed 3.4 3.2 4.5
.500 or above 97.4% 98.5% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 95.7% 81.9%
Conference Champion 25.0% 27.9% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 2.0%
First Round93.2% 95.1% 82.8%
Second Round81.4% 83.9% 67.8%
Sweet Sixteen56.8% 59.6% 41.8%
Elite Eight35.9% 38.3% 23.1%
Final Four20.9% 22.4% 12.6%
Championship Game11.6% 12.5% 6.8%
National Champion6.4% 7.0% 3.2%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 26 - 114 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 43 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 41   Notre Dame W 84-73 85%    
  Nov 08, 2019 268   @ UNC Wilmington W 99-77 98%    
  Nov 15, 2019 176   Gardner-Webb W 93-70 98%    
  Nov 20, 2019 317   Elon W 98-67 99.8%   
  Nov 27, 2019 45   Alabama W 87-79 77%    
  Dec 04, 2019 14   Ohio St. W 82-75 73%    
  Dec 07, 2019 10   @ Virginia L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 15, 2019 107   Wofford W 90-72 94%    
  Dec 18, 2019 8   @ Gonzaga L 87-88 46%    
  Dec 21, 2019 82   UCLA W 96-84 86%    
  Dec 30, 2019 144   Yale W 98-77 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 75   Georgia Tech W 87-72 90%    
  Jan 08, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 87-73 89%    
  Jan 11, 2020 81   Clemson W 84-69 90%    
  Jan 18, 2020 72   @ Pittsburgh W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 22, 2020 85   @ Virginia Tech W 81-71 79%    
  Jan 25, 2020 63   Miami (FL) W 88-75 86%    
  Jan 27, 2020 22   @ North Carolina St. W 91-88 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 101   Boston College W 90-72 92%    
  Feb 03, 2020 18   @ Florida St. W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 08, 2020 3   Duke W 90-88 58%    
  Feb 11, 2020 91   @ Wake Forest W 88-77 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 10   Virginia W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 17, 2020 41   @ Notre Dame W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 22, 2020 6   @ Louisville L 80-83 41%    
  Feb 25, 2020 22   North Carolina St. W 94-85 77%    
  Feb 29, 2020 59   @ Syracuse W 81-74 71%    
  Mar 03, 2020 91   Wake Forest W 91-74 91%    
  Mar 07, 2020 3   @ Duke L 87-91 38%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 6.8 7.0 4.8 1.6 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 6.7 4.4 1.2 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.2 6.0 8.2 10.4 12.7 12.6 13.2 11.6 8.2 4.8 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 99.1% 4.8    4.4 0.4
18-2 84.7% 7.0    5.2 1.6 0.1
17-3 58.7% 6.8    3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 28.9% 3.8    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.1% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.5 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 65.2% 34.8% 1.1 1.5 0.2 100.0%
19-1 4.8% 100.0% 55.0% 45.0% 1.2 4.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.2% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.3 6.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.6% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.5 6.8 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.2% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.0 4.6 5.4 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.7 1.9 4.2 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.7% 99.9% 14.0% 85.9% 3.6 0.7 2.3 3.7 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.4% 99.6% 10.5% 89.1% 4.6 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 8.2% 98.0% 6.2% 91.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-9 6.0% 91.9% 4.4% 87.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 91.5%
10-10 4.2% 73.7% 2.2% 71.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 73.1%
9-11 3.0% 48.6% 1.3% 47.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 47.9%
8-12 1.6% 17.1% 0.1% 17.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 17.0%
7-13 1.0% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.3%
6-14 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.5 1.4%
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 93.5% 20.8% 72.7% 3.4 25.7 19.6 13.4 10.0 7.2 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 91.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2